FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS（ISBN=9780812975215） 下载 网盘 kindle mobi 115盘 pdf pdb rtf

　　“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled

By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately

what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic

Church.”

–Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will

change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book

is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal

and professional experiences.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which

luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by

Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and

endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood

forces in all of our lives.

Pt. I Solon's warning

1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart?

2 A bizarre accounting method

3 A mathematical meditation on history

4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual

5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by

randomness?

6 Skewness and asymmetry

7 The problem of induction

Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters

8 Too many millionaires next door

9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg

10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life

11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind

Pt. III Wax in my ears

12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box

13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism

14 Bacchus abandons antony

Epilogue : Solon told you

Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower

　　Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC,

a crisis-hunting hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant

Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has

held a variety of derivative trading positions in New York and

London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Taleb

was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of

Fame.

　　Taleb received an M.B.A. from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from

the University of Paris Dauphine. He is the author of Dynamic

Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (Wiley, 1997).

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　　Amazon.com

　　If the pre*ions for getting rich that are outlined in books

such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are

successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask,

Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim

Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor,

examines what randomness means in business and in life and why

human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate

skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature

of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms

in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines,

and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so

good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical

concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in

evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to

the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned

bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on

the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little

more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended.

--Harry C. Edwards