（冒险前行）AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK 下载 网盘 kindle mobi 115盘 pdf pdb rtf

In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society，Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under con-trol is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past.Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.

Acknowledgments

Introduction

TO　1200：BEGINNINGS

　1.The　Winds　of　the　Greeks　and　the　Role　of　the　Dice

　2.As　Easy　as　Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ

1200-1700：A　THOUSAND　OUTSTANDING　FACTS

　3.The　Renaissance　Gambler

　4.The　French　Connection

　5.The　Remarkable　Notions　of　the Remarkable　Notions　Man

1700-1900：MEASUREMENT　UNLIMITED

　6.Considering　the　Nature　of　Man

　7.The　Search　for　Moral　Certainty

　8.The　Supreme　Law　of　Unreason

　9.The　Man　with　the　Sprained　Brain

　10.Peapods　and　Perils

　11.The　Fabric　of　Felicity

1900-1960：CLOUDS　OF　VAGUENESS　AND　THE DEMAND　FOR　PRECISION

　12.The　Measure　of　Our　Ignorance

　13.The　Radically　Distinct　Notion

　14.The　Man　Who　Counted　Everything Except　Calories

15.The　Strange　Case　of　the　Anonymous Stockbroker

DEGREES　OF　BELIEF EXPLORING　UNCERTAINTY

16.The　Failure　of　Invariance

17.The　Theory　Police

18.The　Fantastic　System　of　Side　Bets

19.Awaiting　the　Wildness

Notes

Bibliography

Name　Index

Subject　Index

PETER L.BERNSTEIN is President of Peter L.Bernstein，Inc.，economic consultants to institutional advisors and corporations.His semimonthly analysis of the capital markets and the real economy，Economics and Portfolio Strategy，is read by managers and owne

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亚当.斯密（Adam Smith）... 把这种动机定义为：“大多数人对自己的能力和自己会有好运的愚蠢假设的过分自负。“尽管斯密敏锐地意识到人类喜欢承受风险的倾向有利于促进经济的发展，他仍然担心当这种倾向性失去控制时会对社会产生不利的影响。所以他将人的道德情感与市场的好处仔细地进行权衡。

160年以后，另外一个伟大的英国经济学家约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes)也同意这种观点：当一个国家的资本发展成为赌场的副产品时，人们的工作可能不会很好的进行。

Order is impossible to find unless disorder is there first.

Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win against such an opponent is likely to be a sure recipe for losing. By making the best of a bad bargain-by diversifying instead of striving to make a killing-the investor at least maximizes the probability of survival.

The word "risk" derives from the early Italian risicare, whjicjh means "to dare." In this sense, risk is a choice rather than a fate. The actions we dare to take, which depend on how free we are to make choices, are what the story of risk is all about. And that story helps define what it means to be a human being.

Yet once we act, we forfeit the option of waiting until new information comes along. As a result, not-acting has value. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination. Hamlet is wrong: he who hesitates is halfway home.

He postulates a game that ends at an infinite distance in time. At that moment, a coin is tossed. Which way would you bet--heads (God is) or tails (God is not)?

书籍介绍

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Book Description

Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.

Amazon.com

With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

From Publishers Weekly

Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.

From Library Journal

For several centuries, mathematics has been the language of the exact sciences. Only in the 20th century has mathematics become predominant in other fields, particularly economics and finance. In this book, Bernstein (Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, LJ 12/91), head of an economic consulting firm, traces the development of probability theory from its beginnings in analyzing games of chance, through its application to statistical theory and insurance, up to its present use in developing investment strategies to control risk. He includes excellent sections on portfolio analysis and on investments in derivatives. Bernstein clearly describes the people, their work, and the events that have revolutionized the thinking on Wall Street. A worthwhile acquisition for business and math collections.

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Harold D. Shane, Baruch Coll., CUNY

From Booklist

Bernstein's lively history chronicles a profound transformation in attitudes about the future. How one's fate changed from depending less on capricious outcomes and more on predictable ones forms the backbone of the narrative. His central characters are mathematicians who began pondering the statistics of gambling, or gamblers pondering the risks of gambling: about one sixteenth-century polymath, Girolamo Cardano, Bernstein writes that his "credentials as a gambling addict alone would justify his appearance in the history of risk," and that comment is typical of Bernstein's engaging presentation. Amid his recounting of the insights into probability from Pascal to Keynes, he touches on an array of modern fields in which risk analysis is crucial--insurance, commodities futures, stock markets, and that old standard, gambling. This cornucopia of biographical sketches, mathematical examples, and reflections on the nature of human expectations about the future faces little risk of idling in libraries; patrons of the business section might be keenest to read it.

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Gilbert Taylor

From AudioFile

Jesse Boggs honed his expressive, laid-back vocal style narrating his own award-winning documentaries. Here, as reader and abridger, he goes a long way to clarify Bernstein's convoluted theory of risk management. His careful phrasing also brings into high relief the sweeping generalizations and questionable axioms that give pause to the analytic listener. Only in this careful frame of mind can one separate wheat from chaff and learn whatever this book has to teach. Y.R.

The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998

AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."

Book Dimension

length: (cm)22.7 　　　 　　　　　 　　　　　 width:(cm)15.2