境况规划：未来管理 Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future 下载 网盘 kindle mobi 115盘 pdf pdb rtf

Scenario planning has received much top-level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long-term future. Yet seldom are line managers included in initiatives, even though their exposure to customers and competitors means they often pick up subtle signals that are the first alert of changes to the operating environment. By exposing line managers to alternative scenarios, organizations can reduce the risk of ignoring the small environmental changes that are the advance warning for major discontinuities. Now completely updated in a new edition, the message of this practical, hands-on guide is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Taking a conceptual rather than mathematical approach, it includes a wealth of case studies, checklists, early indicators and examples.

Acknowledgements.

Contributors to the Second Edition.

Foreword.

PART I Introduction.

　Chapter 1: The Development of Scenario Planning.

　Chapter 2: Where Are We Now?.

　Chapter 3: ICL’s Experience of Building Scenarios for Strategic Planning.

　Chapter 4: Linking Scenarios to Strategic Planning.

　Chapter 5: Scenarios to Influence Public Attitudes.

　Chapter 6: Scenarios for Learning.

　Chapter 7: Summary and Conclusions.

PART II METHODS AND EXAMPLES.

　Computer-Driven Simulations, e.g. Stratx.

　The European Commission’s Methodology.

　The French School.

　Generon Consulting.

　GBN Global Business Network.

　International Futures and the Terra Project.

　SAMI Consulting.

　SCMl.

　SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.

　The Amington Institute.

　The Millennium Project.

　Futures Data.

PART III CASE STUDIES.

　AMA: Roadmap to Utopia.

　British Airways.

　Cable & Wireless Experience.

　Diabetes 2020: Designing New Business Models for Prevention and Treatment.

　Electrolux: Developing New Business Streams.

　European Commission: Using Scenarios to Great Common Understanding across 　Different Cultures.

　Finland: A Long-term View.

　KRONE: Scanning the Horizon.

　Morgan Stanley in Japan, 2002.

　Pharma Futures: Multistakeholder Scenario Planning for the Global Pharmaceutical 　Industry through 2015.

　Shell’s Planning System in the 1990s.

　Surrey Vision 2020.

　The UK National Health Service.

　United Distillers’ Experience: Investigating Market Potential.

PART IV EXAMPLES OF SCENARIOS.

　Scenarios Developed by ICL – Mark I.

　Scenarios Developed by ICL – Mark II.

　Scenarios for the Telecom Supply Industry.

　The Hemingford Scenarios.

　Scenarios for the Future of Biosciences in 2020 and Beyond.

　Scenarios for Organisations in the Twenty-first Century.

　Scenarios for Scotland.

　Shell Global Scenarios to 2025.

　The Challenge Forum Global Scenarios for 2025.

　Z/Yen Scenarios for Voluntary-Sector Organisations.

　Bibliography.

Index.

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