The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk: Theory and Experimental Evidence (Lecture Notes in Economics a风险研究的知识领先方法：理论与实验证据 下载 网盘 kindle mobi 115盘 pdf pdb rtf

This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. In the first stage of risk, the uninsured face dissatisfactions of worries and planning difficulties (avoided by the insured), also perhaps positive satisfactions of thrills (missed out on by the insured). In the second stage when the risk is passed the uninsured may face the dissatisfactions of ridicule and blame if they learn that they were unlucky. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory which are irrationally atemporal (single stage) theories, ignoring the initial risky stage to be endured or enjoyed before learning whether one has been lucky or unlucky.

1 Introduction

Ⅰ Theory and Methhodology

　2 A serious specific scenario for a serious risky choice theory

　3 What expected utility theory really is : what its notion of risk aversion excludes

　4 Primary and secondary satisfactions

　5 The von Neumann-Morgenstern contradiction when including secondary satisfactions solved with

stages of knowledge

　6 Material secondary satisfactions and planning

　7 Misconceptions about secondary satisfactions

　8 Biases in experimental set-ups that ignore secondary satisfactions

　9 SKAT, the stages of knowledge ahead theory

　10 Self reports versus scientists' own introspection and related reliability issues

ⅡExperiments

　11 Participants and their choices

　12 Willingness to pay compared with choices in a dictated choice set

　13 The role of secondary satisfactions

　14 Algorithms versus global maximising procedures

　15 Insurance provision by governments and firms

　16 Summary and directions for further research

A Experimental Rasults in Detail

B Utility Shapes

C Questionnaire

D Glossary/Acronyms

References

Author Index

Subject Index

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