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约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（1883—1946），活跃于二十世纪上半叶西方学术、思想和政治舞台的著名经济学家、哲学家和政治家，二十世纪最具影响力的经济学家之一。在本书中，凯恩斯提出投资与储蓄的平衡是稳定价格水平和经济活动的前提，主张通过调节信用，特别是调节利息率来维持储蓄与投资的平衡，以稳定价格水平和经济活动。

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It has been observed that, when the gold standard is fully operative, credit cycles generally have an international character. We are now able to see that this must necessarily be so. No individual central bank can go very far either in the direction of inflation or in that of deflation unless the other central banks are moving, faster or slower, the same way. The international gold standard has no views on inflation or deflation as such. Its business is to ensure that no central bank shall inflate or deflate at a pace very different from that of its neighbours. By the law of average behaviour this may obviate major disturbance but by the complexity it introduces and its lack of central direction it multiplies disturbances of intermediate magnitude.

It is investment, i.e. the increased production of material wealth in the shape of capital goods, which alone increases national wealth, and can alone in the long run bring down the natural rate of interest.

This high degree of short-period mobility of international lending, combined with a low degree of short-period mobility of international trade, means—failing steps to deal with the former—that even a small and temporary divergence in the local rate of interest from the international rate may be dangerous. In this way adherence to an international standard tends to limit unduly the power of a central bank to deal with its own domestic situation so as to maintain internal stability and the optimum of employment.

Laissez-faire towards foreign investment means that the net rate of interest will tend to the same level everywhere, apart from risks, etc. Consequently, quantities of labour of equal efficiency must be combined with equal quantities of capital in all countries, with the result that the marginal efficiency of labour will be the same everywhere, and hence labour's share of the product. Thus if lending is mobile internationally and the risks the same, efficiency wages must tend to the same level everywhere. Otherwise, foreign lending by the country where efficiency wages are relatively high will tend to exceed its foreign balance, thus requiring a profit deflation to preserve its stock of gold, until by the pressure of unemployment an income deflation ensues and wages are eventually brought ...

The value of a company's shares, and even of its bonds, will be found to be sensitive to a degree, which a rational observer from outside might consider quite absurd, to short-period fluctuations in its known or anticipated profits. The shares of a railway company will be highly sensitive to its weekly traffic returns, even if it be well known that these are influenced by necessarily transient factors, such as an exceptionally good or bad harvest in the country concerned, or a strike in the district served by the railway, or even an international exhibition. Such events will often cause the capital value of the shares to fluctuate by an amount which far exceeds any possible change in its profits due to the event in question. These are extreme cases, perhaps; but it must be well known to an...

If investors were capable of taking longer views, the fluctuations in the natural rate of interest would not be so great as they are. The real prospects do not suffer such large and quick changes as does the spirit of enterprise.

书籍介绍

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（1883—1946），活跃于二十世纪上半叶西方学术、思想和政治舞台的著名经济学家、哲学家和政治家，二十世纪最具影响力的经济学家之一。在本书中，凯恩斯提出投资与储蓄的平衡是稳定价格水平和经济活动的前提，主张通过调节信用，特别是调节利息率来维持储蓄与投资的平衡，以稳定价格水平和经济活动。